Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15868

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.34, p 0.374). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15867, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15868
    31 Oct 2026, 04:29 UTC

    MAP4K5

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMAP4K5 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9de6bc0e1096db1c

    discovery+0.34 p=0.374 n=9

    replication+0.11 p=0.784 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.34, p 0.374)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    52d3bbe03d19727467a3abf8…
    follows b20a8b77442d…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15868: MAP4K5 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.22 (p 0.374, n 18), 95% CI -0.27 to +0.62. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.24 (p 0.332, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.25 (p 0.319, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.13 to +0.37, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.22 (p 0.374, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MAP4K5 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.