Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15867

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.25, p 0.518). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15866, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15867
    31 Oct 2026, 04:29 UTC

    MAP4K5

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionMAP4K5 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered2c2ef0d0f874bfdc

    discovery-0.25 p=0.518 n=9

    replication+0.62 p=0.078 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.25, p 0.518)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    b20a8b77442d09ef416569e7…
    follows 682065b61e14…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 15867: MAP4K5 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.14 (p 0.591, n 18), 95% CI -0.35 to +0.57. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.19 (p 0.444, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.28 (p 0.261, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.02 to +0.22, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.14 (p 0.591, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MAP4K5 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.