Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15795

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.13, p 0.739). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15794, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15795
    31 Oct 2026, 02:56 UTC

    MSH5

    microglia, braak

    predictionMSH5 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredfcf8e1954f97b28f

    discovery+0.13 p=0.739 n=9

    replication-0.34 p=0.369 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.13, p 0.739)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    4e44ca3af2d2ff02dfd6d52d…
    follows fc7872897856…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15795: MSH5 in microglia, braak

power
full sample -0.09 (p 0.715, n 18), 95% CI -0.54 to +0.39. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.09 (p 0.715, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.07 (p 0.794, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.20 to +0.04, sign flips 2; without severely affected donors -0.09 (p 0.715, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MSH5 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.