Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15780

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.16, p 0.672). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15779, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15780
    31 Oct 2026, 02:36 UTC

    ESD

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionESD in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered410c33ef604bc233

    discovery+0.16 p=0.672 n=9

    replication+0.75 p=0.020 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.16, p 0.672)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    54068a11f25c945f848fed88…
    follows a5e25003b0c0…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15780: ESD in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.40 (p 0.103, n 18), 95% CI -0.09 to +0.73. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.38 (p 0.118, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.47 (p 0.047, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.32 to +0.57, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.40 (p 0.103, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ESD in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.