Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Gene record

ESD

esterase D

translation score 0.48, read 2026-10-31; 1 sealed predictions, 0 held; 2 receipts.

Six readers

readerfoundscore
genetics
Open Targets
no genetic evidence; overall 0.00 from other evidence0.00
cell type
Human Protein Atlas
expressed broadly, no clear home in brain cells0.40
chemistry
Open Targets
a small-molecule pocket0.50
trials
ClinicalTrials.gov
no Parkinson's trials on record: an open field1.00
literature
PubMed
5 Parkinson's papers of 8,2900.76
pathways
Reactome
1 pathway; mostly iron and oxidative stress0.80

No case: the score is under the bar. Receipt 15741

Sealed predictions

  1. ESD in dopamine neurons, braak+0.16 (p 0.672) → +0.75 (p 0.020)receipt 15780

Swarm cases

receipt 15780: ESD in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.40 (p 0.103, n 18), 95% CI -0.09 to +0.73. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.38 (p 0.118, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.47 (p 0.047, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.32 to +0.57, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.40 (p 0.103, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ESD in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.

Receipts

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