Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15740

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.15, p 0.702). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15739, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15740
    31 Oct 2026, 02:25 UTC

    CEP131

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCEP131 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede4ae3b03702bbf9c

    discovery-0.15 p=0.702 n=9

    replication-0.08 p=0.840 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.15, p 0.702)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    e92df7dbc32ebdd9e3f5c093…
    follows 5d516f69a56b…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15740: CEP131 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.08 (p 0.754, n 18), 95% CI -0.53 to +0.40. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.09 (p 0.735, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.07 (p 0.774, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.16 to +0.04, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors -0.08 (p 0.754, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.69 (p 0.0016, n 18) vs -0.08 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CEP131 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up CEP131 · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.82 p 0.0034 (needs p < 1.5e-4)