Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15702

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.25, p 0.518). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15701, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15702
    31 Oct 2026, 01:38 UTC

    MYO19

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionMYO19 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf593d6d8d55e9c13

    discovery-0.25 p=0.518 n=9

    replication-0.25 p=0.514 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.25, p 0.518)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    42fc961f744d90859d5222b7…
    follows c2efc8ed2d6e…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15702: MYO19 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.18 (p 0.482, n 18), 95% CI -0.59 to +0.32. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.21 (p 0.403, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.28 (p 0.254, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.34 to -0.07, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.18 (p 0.482, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in OPCs: -0.75 (p 3.7e-4, n 18) vs -0.18 in astrocytes. proposing OPCs.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MYO19 in astrocytes.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up MYO19 · OPCs · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort: not measured