Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15665

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.48, p 0.190). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15664, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15665
    31 Oct 2026, 00:51 UTC

    IFNGR2

    microglia, braak

    predictionIFNGR2 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered0dc8195efbdb59bf

    discovery+0.48 p=0.190 n=9

    replication-0.06 p=0.877 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.48, p 0.190)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    945b2e42e0dc4e19457ef0f2…
    follows 2d729a4565ed…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15665: IFNGR2 in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.17 (p 0.493, n 18), 95% CI -0.32 to +0.59. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.17 (p 0.493, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.17 (p 0.509, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.05 to +0.31, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.17 (p 0.493, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for IFNGR2 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.