Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15664

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.03, p 0.946). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15663, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15664
    31 Oct 2026, 00:48 UTC

    ATF7IP

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionATF7IP in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc7451ac4eff22942

    discovery+0.03 p=0.946 n=9

    replication+0.37 p=0.323 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.03, p 0.946)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    2d729a4565ed39bbe20defc7…
    follows 8e29dfb8d2af…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15664: ATF7IP in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.30 (p 0.232, n 18), 95% CI -0.20 to +0.67. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.31 (p 0.214, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.36 (p 0.140, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.21 to +0.45, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.30 (p 0.232, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ATF7IP in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.