Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15638

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.20, p 0.613). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15637, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15638
    31 Oct 2026, 00:10 UTC

    CREB3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCREB3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered2abeec99589fdaa7

    discovery+0.20 p=0.613 n=9

    replication-0.21 p=0.591 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.20, p 0.613)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    28ed0b0aa0639214fe7b33db…
    follows 67ff2e59c451…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 15638: CREB3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.01 (p 0.956, n 18), 95% CI -0.46 to +0.48. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.00 (p 0.990, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.05 (p 0.847, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.10 to +0.14, sign flips 6; without severely affected donors +0.01 (p 0.956, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CREB3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.