Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15592

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.47, p 0.204). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15591, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15592
    30 Oct 2026, 23:09 UTC

    NUP98

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionNUP98 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered1ef996f02d8bec0d

    discovery+0.47 p=0.204 n=9

    replication-0.01 p=0.982 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.47, p 0.204)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    5ca5ad133bf539aa62c754ec…
    follows 5aba82649aa9…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15592: NUP98 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.32 (p 0.198, n 18), 95% CI -0.17 to +0.68. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.28 (p 0.254, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.31 (p 0.218, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.24 to +0.46, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.32 (p 0.198, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in microglia: +0.78 (p 1.6e-4, n 18) vs +0.32 in dopamine neurons. proposing microglia.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NUP98 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up NUP98 · microglia · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.00 p 1.000 (needs p < 1.5e-4)