Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15556

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.01, p 0.982). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15555, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15556
    30 Oct 2026, 22:20 UTC

    MTERF4

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMTERF4 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered97def5114e49cff7

    discovery+0.01 p=0.982 n=9

    replication-0.65 p=0.058 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.01, p 0.982)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    499119d0b86baaba09bc5dd1…
    follows 9ee570311c4e…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15556: MTERF4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.32 (p 0.198, n 18), 95% CI -0.68 to +0.17. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.40 (p 0.103, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.35 (p 0.153, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.43 to -0.22, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.32 (p 0.198, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in astrocytes: +0.69 (p 0.0017, n 18) vs -0.32 in dopamine neurons. proposing astrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MTERF4 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up MTERF4 · astrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.13 p 0.657 (needs p < 1.5e-4)