Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15554

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.34, p 0.375). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15553, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15554
    30 Oct 2026, 22:17 UTC

    CST5

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCST5 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb27fb372fd5269a6

    discovery-0.34 p=0.375 n=9

    replication-0.46 p=0.217 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.34, p 0.375)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    2cdd3912ea5271690faeeeed…
    follows 401e1e79e752…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15554: CST5 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.39 (p 0.111, n 18), 95% CI -0.72 to +0.10. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.42 (p 0.080, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.61 (p 0.0077, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.51 to -0.31, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.39 (p 0.111, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CST5 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.