Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15552

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.64, p 0.063). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15551, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15552
    30 Oct 2026, 22:14 UTC

    PRKCQ

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionPRKCQ in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd5bc36fcfcf14589

    discovery-0.64 p=0.063 n=9

    replication+0.27 p=0.485 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.64, p 0.063)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    013bccd2062813660a8fc679…
    follows e3acf355f7e0…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15552: PRKCQ in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.29 (p 0.246, n 18), 95% CI -0.67 to +0.21. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.25 (p 0.323, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.33 (p 0.185, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.42 to -0.19, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.29 (p 0.246, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PRKCQ in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.