Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1554

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.30, p 0.435). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1553, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1554
    18 Oct 2026, 01:32 UTC

    ATP8B2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionATP8B2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered0926e0896cf1376c

    discovery+0.30 p=0.435 n=9

    replication-0.71 p=0.033 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.30, p 0.435)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    25b9f219e9c991b9b848914c…
    follows a3ec36961fc6…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1554: ATP8B2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.30 (p 0.232, n 18), 95% CI -0.67 to +0.20. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.24 (p 0.328, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.34 (p 0.167, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.41 to -0.20, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.30 (p 0.232, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ATP8B2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.