Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1553

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.48, p 0.186). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1552, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1553
    18 Oct 2026, 01:30 UTC

    PTCD1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPTCD1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered02bf0cfa496a0906

    discovery-0.48 p=0.186 n=9

    replication+0.04 p=0.928 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.48, p 0.186)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a3ec36961fc678b60a0c3f26…
    follows ccc99543712a…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1553: PTCD1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.18 (p 0.476, n 18), 95% CI -0.60 to +0.31. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.19 (p 0.455, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.19 (p 0.455, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.30 to -0.05, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.18 (p 0.476, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PTCD1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.