Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15530

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.24, p 0.529). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15529, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15530
    30 Oct 2026, 21:44 UTC

    LPAR4

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionLPAR4 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered38a974ef044a6306

    discovery-0.24 p=0.529 n=9

    replication+0.23 p=0.549 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.24, p 0.529)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    b387332b0310ab3bec04846f…
    follows fc07ea7c375a…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15530: LPAR4 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.14 (p 0.591, n 18), 95% CI -0.35 to +0.57. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.14 (p 0.573, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.23 (p 0.351, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.03 to +0.26, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.14 (p 0.591, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for LPAR4 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.