Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15465

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.84 p 0.0047; held-out +0.13 p 0.741). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15464, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15465
    30 Oct 2026, 20:16 UTC

    NELL2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionNELL2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede50e66106e78987f

    discovery+0.84 p=0.0047 n=9

    replication+0.13 p=0.741 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.84 p 0.0047; held-out +0.13 p 0.741)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    2dd7970326a99f08e207c684…
    follows 3babc5aae0e8…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 15465: NELL2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.55 (p 0.019, n 18), 95% CI +0.11 to +0.81. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.60 (p 0.0086, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.56 (p 0.016, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.48 to +0.74, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.55 (p 0.019, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NELL2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.