Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15391

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.08, p 0.833). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15390, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15391
    30 Oct 2026, 18:37 UTC

    ARHGEF10

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionARHGEF10 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered449a72775815d449

    discovery+0.08 p=0.833 n=9

    replication+0.12 p=0.749 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.08, p 0.833)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    24882265065cef5f6ed3ef0d…
    follows 5cdfd4984412…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 15391: ARHGEF10 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.00 (p 0.997, n 18), 95% CI -0.47 to +0.47. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.03 (p 0.915, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.04 (p 0.888, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.15 to +0.14, sign flips 8; without severely affected donors -0.00 (p 0.997, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ARHGEF10 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.