Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15389

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.00, p 1.000). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15388, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15389
    30 Oct 2026, 18:34 UTC

    UBASH3B

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionUBASH3B in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered8428cefaec35be3f

    discovery+0.00 p=1.000 n=9

    replication-0.40 p=0.292 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.00, p 1.000)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    3d483a85c7791b18e489b1ad…
    follows 6ebc64afce1a…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15389: UBASH3B in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.15 (p 0.555, n 18), 95% CI -0.58 to +0.34. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.15 (p 0.555, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.17 (p 0.493, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.28 to -0.04, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.15 (p 0.555, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in microglia: -0.66 (p 0.0030, n 18) vs -0.15 in dopamine neurons. proposing microglia.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for UBASH3B in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up UBASH3B · microglia · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.63 p 0.026 (needs p < 1.5e-4)