Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15314

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.62, p 0.074). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15313, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15314
    30 Oct 2026, 16:52 UTC

    TPCN1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTPCN1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd5d534d13da51b2e

    discovery-0.62 p=0.074 n=9

    replication-0.07 p=0.852 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.62, p 0.074)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    fe269b559dd0ae7c9b748eb9…
    follows df7e54715e50…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15314: TPCN1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.31 (p 0.218, n 18), 95% CI -0.68 to +0.19. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.35 (p 0.156, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.54 (p 0.019, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.45 to -0.23, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.31 (p 0.218, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.76 (p 2.7e-4, n 18) vs -0.31 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TPCN1 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up TPCN1 · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (already registered)