Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15313

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.50, p 0.166). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15312, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15313
    30 Oct 2026, 16:52 UTC

    TPCN1

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionTPCN1 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered2b6c00b127b49431

    discovery+0.50 p=0.166 n=9

    replication-0.16 p=0.680 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.50, p 0.166)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    df7e54715e50117b87299a5e…
    follows 9b917b55e513…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15313: TPCN1 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.15 (p 0.549, n 18), 95% CI -0.34 to +0.58. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.21 (p 0.393, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.36 (p 0.140, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.03 to +0.25, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.15 (p 0.549, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.76 (p 2.7e-4, n 18) vs +0.15 in astrocytes. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TPCN1 in astrocytes.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up TPCN1 · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.25 p 0.374 (needs p < 1.5e-4)