Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15300

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.11, p 0.784). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15299, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15300
    30 Oct 2026, 16:35 UTC

    LIPA

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionLIPA in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered5f8b252c91454980

    discovery+0.11 p=0.784 n=9

    replication+0.45 p=0.224 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.11, p 0.784)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a5b39b313c63ea8f1791ef60…
    follows 3b9c999f5035…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15300: LIPA in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.30 (p 0.228, n 18), 95% CI -0.20 to +0.67. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.26 (p 0.294, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.32 (p 0.194, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.20 to +0.47, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.30 (p 0.228, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for LIPA in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.