Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15174

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.58, p 0.101). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15173, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15174
    30 Oct 2026, 13:43 UTC

    FGF3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionFGF3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredcfd6878ff62b4039

    discovery-0.58 p=0.101 n=9

    replication-0.11 p=0.784 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.58, p 0.101)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    4b7566c020e39c9d49cf5c5b…
    follows 7cbeaa4efb0e…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15174: FGF3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.28 (p 0.254, n 18), 95% CI -0.66 to +0.21. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.27 (p 0.281, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.46 (p 0.055, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.42 to -0.20, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.28 (p 0.254, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for FGF3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.