Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15151

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.35, p 0.362). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15150, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15151
    30 Oct 2026, 11:58 UTC

    TMCC2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTMCC2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9672f62aac34c7b6

    discovery-0.35 p=0.362 n=9

    replication-0.62 p=0.074 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.35, p 0.362)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    efa839ad9733e7b8cdbcfa18…
    follows 9f9679b5e61f…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 15151: TMCC2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.40 (p 0.103, n 18), 95% CI -0.73 to +0.09. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.36 (p 0.140, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.54 (p 0.021, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.47 to -0.32, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.40 (p 0.103, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.65 (p 0.0034, n 18) vs -0.40 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TMCC2 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up TMCC2 · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.13 p 0.657 (needs p < 1.5e-4)