Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15150

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.60, p 0.090). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15149, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15150
    30 Oct 2026, 11:57 UTC

    TMCC2

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionTMCC2 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd370a0d7eb5cb3b4

    discovery-0.60 p=0.090 n=9

    replication-0.74 p=0.023 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.60, p 0.090)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    9f9679b5e61f8fe6f1a44e34…
    follows fcbcea880e0f…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 15150: TMCC2 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.65 (p 0.0034, n 18), 95% CI -0.86 to -0.26. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.65 (p 0.0034, n 18). holds up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.65 (p 0.0034, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.72 to -0.60, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.65 (p 0.0034, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TMCC2 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.