Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15092

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.22, p 0.565). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15091, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15092
    30 Oct 2026, 10:38 UTC

    PIEZO2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPIEZO2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredbfbe772f3141e553

    discovery+0.22 p=0.565 n=9

    replication-0.31 p=0.414 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.22, p 0.565)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    152bfe001c5e2e80fea071ae…
    follows a31f6c83eb5d…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15092: PIEZO2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.06 (p 0.814, n 18), 95% CI -0.51 to +0.42. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.06 (p 0.814, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.15 (p 0.561, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.17 to +0.07, sign flips 5; without severely affected donors -0.06 (p 0.814, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PIEZO2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.