Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15091

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.15, p 0.697). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15090, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15091
    30 Oct 2026, 10:38 UTC

    PIEZO2

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionPIEZO2 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf8d294650015f40f

    discovery-0.15 p=0.697 n=9

    replication+0.26 p=0.499 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.15, p 0.697)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a31f6c83eb5d513a068cc7db…
    follows 917ad70a7a82…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15091: PIEZO2 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.04 (p 0.874, n 18), 95% CI -0.43 to +0.50. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.04 (p 0.874, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.08 (p 0.741, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.11 to +0.15, sign flips 6; without severely affected donors +0.04 (p 0.874, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PIEZO2 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.