Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15079

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.36, p 0.347). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15078, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15079
    30 Oct 2026, 10:21 UTC

    NFIC

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionNFIC in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredcfedeeabef7d2631

    discovery-0.36 p=0.347 n=9

    replication-0.53 p=0.143 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.36, p 0.347)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    3a62b86f86ec40031be78429…
    follows 3d971cf9625c…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15079: NFIC in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.46 (p 0.056, n 18), 95% CI -0.76 to +0.01. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.48 (p 0.042, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.54 (p 0.021, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.59 to -0.39, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.46 (p 0.056, n 18). robust.
cell type
strongest in microglia: -0.62 (p 0.0064, n 18) vs -0.46 in dopamine neurons. proposing microglia.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NFIC in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up NFIC · microglia · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.45 p 0.110 (needs p < 1.5e-4)