Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15058

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.35, p 0.354). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15057, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15058
    30 Oct 2026, 09:50 UTC

    ZFHX4

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionZFHX4 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9d6eef9de61321d6

    discovery+0.35 p=0.354 n=9

    replication-0.16 p=0.685 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.35, p 0.354)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    85f95e6f3b3175c8e348401e…
    follows 0e9923bb4005…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15058: ZFHX4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.06 (p 0.827, n 18), 95% CI -0.42 to +0.51. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.06 (p 0.814, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.09 (p 0.709, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.05 to +0.18, sign flips 5; without severely affected donors +0.06 (p 0.827, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ZFHX4 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.