Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15057

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.24, p 0.535). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15056, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15057
    30 Oct 2026, 09:50 UTC

    ZFHX4

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionZFHX4 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered6f3f5de97a1e81af

    discovery+0.24 p=0.535 n=9

    replication+0.02 p=0.964 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.24, p 0.535)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    0e9923bb4005a0f3f19e6c39…
    follows 16bcbc1fcc7d…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15057: ZFHX4 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.11 (p 0.664, n 18), 95% CI -0.38 to +0.55. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.09 (p 0.709, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: +0.05 (p 0.847, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.00 to +0.28, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.11 (p 0.664, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ZFHX4 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.