Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 15006

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.19, p 0.623). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 15005, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 15006
    30 Oct 2026, 08:44 UTC

    GSG1L

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionGSG1L in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered3bd6646967679398

    discovery+0.19 p=0.623 n=9

    replication-0.63 p=0.068 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.19, p 0.623)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    bb49f113c67c837b7bf3668f…
    follows 899bcebb2979…

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The swarm's case

receipt 15006: GSG1L in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.17 (p 0.498, n 18), 95% CI -0.59 to +0.32. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.19 (p 0.444, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.44 (p 0.069, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.28 to -0.05, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.17 (p 0.498, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GSG1L in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.