Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14984

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.78 p 0.012; held-out -0.39 p 0.306). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14983, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14984
    30 Oct 2026, 08:15 UTC

    SLC25A32

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionSLC25A32 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9f74f28344cd62c3

    discovery+0.78 p=0.012 n=9

    replication-0.39 p=0.306 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.78 p 0.012; held-out -0.39 p 0.306)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    250051b76dd9a77af369b732…
    follows 62c262e2d6c8…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 14984: SLC25A32 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.29 (p 0.235, n 18), 95% CI -0.20 to +0.67. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.32 (p 0.201, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.32 (p 0.201, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.19 to +0.44, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.29 (p 0.235, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SLC25A32 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.