Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14983

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.53, p 0.143). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14982, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14983
    30 Oct 2026, 08:13 UTC

    RBBP4

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRBBP4 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered087fca8d9b8fd78d

    discovery+0.53 p=0.143 n=9

    replication+0.35 p=0.362 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.53, p 0.143)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    62c262e2d6c8e22a9e8fbd5e…
    follows 13c215129fd7…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14983: RBBP4 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.22 (p 0.384, n 18), 95% CI -0.28 to +0.62. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.21 (p 0.408, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.32 (p 0.194, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.12 to +0.34, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.22 (p 0.384, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RBBP4 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.