Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14976

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.56, p 0.116). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14975, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14976
    30 Oct 2026, 08:02 UTC

    NRM

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionNRM in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredd039a61592dd2c36

    discovery-0.56 p=0.116 n=9

    replication-0.55 p=0.128 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.56, p 0.116)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    0605eb4eccbc12a83f89fb0d…
    follows b5072e7ddd8e…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14976: NRM in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.54 (p 0.021, n 18), 95% CI -0.80 to -0.10. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.63 (p 0.0047, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.77 (p 1.9e-4, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.61 to -0.48, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.54 (p 0.021, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NRM in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.