Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14975

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.18, p 0.648). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14974, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14975
    30 Oct 2026, 08:01 UTC

    NRM

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionNRM in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered8310544cde71ff7e

    discovery+0.18 p=0.648 n=9

    replication-0.67 p=0.049 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.18, p 0.648)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    b5072e7ddd8e093889eacd9c…
    follows 83e6e11446aa…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14975: NRM in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.24 (p 0.337, n 18), 95% CI -0.64 to +0.26. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.14 (p 0.567, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.22 (p 0.374, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.41 to -0.14, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.24 (p 0.337, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NRM in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.