Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14953

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.10, p 0.802). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14952, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14953
    30 Oct 2026, 07:31 UTC

    DCT

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionDCT in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9acd785405090142

    discovery+0.10 p=0.802 n=9

    replication+0.33 p=0.385 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.10, p 0.802)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    4d4997a000cc6e40d4aad79f…
    follows efa4da144c8f…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14953: DCT in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.29 (p 0.250, n 18), 95% CI -0.21 to +0.66. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.32 (p 0.201, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.32 (p 0.201, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.23 to +0.48, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.29 (p 0.250, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DCT in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.