Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14933

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.09, p 0.820). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14932, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14933
    30 Oct 2026, 07:03 UTC

    ACAD8

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionACAD8 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7e1afaea57d48689

    discovery-0.09 p=0.820 n=9

    replication+0.18 p=0.639 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.09, p 0.820)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    76e73657f7f081e209582fd5…
    follows 5ac00e98dd2b…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14933: ACAD8 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.00 (p 0.997, n 18), 95% CI -0.47 to +0.47. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.04 (p 0.874, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.08 (p 0.748, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.08 to +0.14, sign flips 7; without severely affected donors -0.00 (p 0.997, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in astrocytes: +0.68 (p 0.0018, n 18) vs -0.00 in dopamine neurons. proposing astrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ACAD8 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up ACAD8 · astrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.18 p 0.534 (needs p < 1.5e-4)