Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14919

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.23, p 0.553). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14918, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14919
    30 Oct 2026, 06:43 UTC

    PSD

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPSD in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredbe3f1fcfee109d07

    discovery-0.23 p=0.553 n=9

    replication-0.04 p=0.927 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.23, p 0.553)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    3d550f91bfa257bc7e412c22…
    follows 1e9cbeb46ad1…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14919: PSD in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.19 (p 0.444, n 18), 95% CI -0.60 to +0.30. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.27 (p 0.281, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.41 (p 0.093, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.33 to -0.09, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.19 (p 0.444, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PSD in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.