Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14829

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.14, p 0.714). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14828, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14829
    30 Oct 2026, 04:41 UTC

    IFRD1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionIFRD1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered12abf2ded1ca31fa

    discovery-0.14 p=0.714 n=9

    replication+0.27 p=0.485 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.14, p 0.714)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d2cd03977b83df6f4e2993de…
    follows 4dee33df8164…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14829: IFRD1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.01 (p 0.962, n 18), 95% CI -0.46 to +0.48. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.05 (p 0.834, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.00 (p 0.990, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.11 to +0.13, sign flips 6; without severely affected donors +0.01 (p 0.962, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for IFRD1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.