Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14828

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.24, p 0.533). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14827, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14828
    30 Oct 2026, 04:41 UTC

    IFRD1

    microglia, braak

    predictionIFRD1 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredfa920e46857e5405

    discovery+0.24 p=0.533 n=9

    replication-0.16 p=0.672 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.24, p 0.533)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    4dee33df8164c3829ddd464f…
    follows 14776a6b30a6…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14828: IFRD1 in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.04 (p 0.874, n 18), 95% CI -0.43 to +0.50. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.00 (p 0.997, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: -0.02 (p 0.928, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.09 to +0.20, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors +0.04 (p 0.874, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for IFRD1 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.