Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14798

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.25, p 0.517). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14797, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14798
    30 Oct 2026, 04:05 UTC

    PPP1R14A

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionPPP1R14A in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered6b3dbcbcc396dd7c

    discovery+0.25 p=0.517 n=9

    replication-0.41 p=0.276 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.25, p 0.517)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d698be99273c008c05cd359f…
    follows cd866b51b0d6…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14798: PPP1R14A in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.07 (p 0.794, n 18), 95% CI -0.52 to +0.41. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.18 (p 0.465, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.22 (p 0.374, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.20 to +0.04, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors -0.07 (p 0.794, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PPP1R14A in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.