Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14790

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.76 p 0.017; held-out -0.19 p 0.630). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14789, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14790
    30 Oct 2026, 03:54 UTC

    HSPB2

    astrocytes, braak

    predictionHSPB2 in astrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredcbf4ab540c785a14

    discovery-0.76 p=0.017 n=9

    replication-0.19 p=0.630 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.76 p 0.017; held-out -0.19 p 0.630)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    0e522b33e46a03e2e96d5e58…
    follows 4c49dadba8cd…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 14790: HSPB2 in astrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.44 (p 0.067, n 18), 95% CI -0.75 to +0.03. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.45 (p 0.064, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
astrocytes share of nuclei vs axis -0.21 (p 0.413); controlling for it: -0.40 (p 0.099, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.62 to -0.37, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.44 (p 0.067, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for HSPB2 in astrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.