Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14788

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.33, p 0.387). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14787, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14788
    30 Oct 2026, 03:51 UTC

    KBTBD6

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionKBTBD6 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda434258a64fbf4da

    discovery-0.33 p=0.387 n=9

    replication+0.61 p=0.078 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.33, p 0.387)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8167b4b01428471c059f4aa3…
    follows e6c4a9d781b9…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14788: KBTBD6 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.11 (p 0.677, n 18), 95% CI -0.38 to +0.55. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.07 (p 0.774, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.05 (p 0.854, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.00 to +0.27, sign flips 1; without severely affected donors +0.11 (p 0.677, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for KBTBD6 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.