Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14783

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.50, p 0.170). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14782, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14783
    30 Oct 2026, 03:43 UTC

    PID1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPID1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered5f08edd356438686

    discovery+0.50 p=0.170 n=9

    replication+0.00 p=1.000 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.50, p 0.170)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    2ca6abcc272acc6e162e979a…
    follows c4aeb9b5f3cf…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 14783: PID1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.48 (p 0.042, n 18), 95% CI +0.02 to +0.78. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.48 (p 0.042, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.37 (p 0.135, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.41 to +0.56, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.48 (p 0.042, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PID1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.