Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14782

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.04, p 0.927). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14781, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14782
    30 Oct 2026, 03:43 UTC

    PID1

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionPID1 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf4ff1a038fcfe5f4

    discovery-0.04 p=0.927 n=9

    replication-0.13 p=0.742 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.04, p 0.927)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    c4aeb9b5f3cfb506a55d87d5…
    follows bf3c3280ae62…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 14782: PID1 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.06 (p 0.820, n 18), 95% CI -0.51 to +0.42. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.09 (p 0.728, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.01 (p 0.956, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.18 to +0.08, sign flips 4; without severely affected donors -0.06 (p 0.820, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PID1 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.