Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14761

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.58, p 0.101). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14760, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14761
    30 Oct 2026, 03:09 UTC

    ARHGAP24

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionARHGAP24 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered3133122e596a1036

    discovery+0.58 p=0.101 n=9

    replication-0.17 p=0.670 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.58, p 0.101)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8382eedce51d1fe8b2ab9a53…
    follows 8ceaad11be79…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14761: ARHGAP24 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.22 (p 0.384, n 18), 95% CI -0.28 to +0.62. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.21 (p 0.413, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.25 (p 0.315, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.15 to +0.39, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.22 (p 0.384, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ARHGAP24 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.