Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14760

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.37, p 0.323). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14759, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14760
    30 Oct 2026, 03:09 UTC

    ARHGAP24

    microglia, braak

    predictionARHGAP24 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredfb4109e463941af6

    discovery+0.37 p=0.323 n=9

    replication-0.71 p=0.032 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.37, p 0.323)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8ceaad11be79cf1c135d908e…
    follows 55c0951686d2…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14760: ARHGAP24 in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.08 (p 0.767, n 18), 95% CI -0.41 to +0.52. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.08 (p 0.767, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.08 (p 0.767, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.04 to +0.20, sign flips 2; without severely affected donors +0.08 (p 0.767, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ARHGAP24 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.