Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14747

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.53, p 0.143). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14746, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14747
    30 Oct 2026, 02:50 UTC

    ADAM8

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionADAM8 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered845268e2b29418e4

    discovery-0.53 p=0.143 n=9

    replication+0.11 p=0.777 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.53, p 0.143)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d1cc41549cef51f01abf21d9…
    follows 6e86d19e43a7…

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The swarm's case

receipt 14747: ADAM8 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.23 (p 0.355, n 18), 95% CI -0.63 to +0.26. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.23 (p 0.365, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.32 (p 0.198, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.41 to -0.13, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.23 (p 0.355, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in microglia: -0.61 (p 0.0077, n 18) vs -0.23 in dopamine neurons. proposing microglia.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ADAM8 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up ADAM8 · microglia · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) +0.27 p 0.328 (needs p < 1.6e-4)