Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 14680

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.39, p 0.297). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 14679, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 14680
    30 Oct 2026, 02:00 UTC

    TCF12

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionTCF12 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered0e1556b67ea5c935

    discovery+0.39 p=0.297 n=9

    replication+0.44 p=0.234 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.39, p 0.297)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    dae2c7ec00c27c2cd2e52c2f…
    follows d1b450f5e4f2…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 14680: TCF12 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample +0.39 (p 0.111, n 18), 95% CI -0.10 to +0.72. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.37 (p 0.132, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: +0.41 (p 0.087, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.31 to +0.49, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.39 (p 0.111, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TCF12 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.